Predictive model of complex networks for geopolitical conflicts in global trade: the case of Ecuador

Abstract

Introduction: the development of Latin American countries requires clear economic integration strategies that reduce the risks associated with geopolitical conflicts. In an international scenario marked by trade tensions and rivalries between powers, the ability to anticipate risk scenarios becomes a strategic tool for guiding national policies and decisions. The objective is to develop a predictive model based on complex networks to assess geopolitical conflicts arising from global trade, applied in Ecuador.
Method: the study relied on the structural-functional systemic method to comprehensively analyze the interactions between economic and political factors. A bibliographic review was conducted in high-impact databases, Scopus and Web of Science, complemented by official reports and statements from heads of state. The model was built using Gephi 1.10.1 software, which allowed for a visual representation of trade and geopolitical networks. To assess its robustness, the Historical Validation (Backtesting) method was applied, comparing the model's predictions with events that occurred during the reference period.
Results: the results showed high accuracy in identifying geopolitical conflicts, successfully predicting trade tensions with Ecuador's main trading partners, although discrepancies were observed in the actual intensity of some events.
Conclusions: while the model is an effective tool for anticipating risks and guiding trade strategies, it requires adjustments that incorporate qualitative and contextual variables. These findings reinforce the need to complement quantitative approaches with interdisciplinary analysis to increase predictive capacity in complex scenarios.