Economic Feasibility of Residential Photovoltaic Systems in Manabí Province, Ecuador: Comparative Analysis of Capacities

Abstract

Introduction: the energy transition toward renewable sources is a priority in Ecuador, where the electricity matrix depends 78 % on hydroelectricity, showing vulnerability to droughts. Manabí province, with 274.382 electrified homes and high solar radiation, presents favorable conditions for residential photovoltaic generation, but limited information exists about its economic feasibility.
Objective: to evaluate the economic feasibility of 1, 3, and 5 kWp residential photovoltaic systems in eight coastal cantons of Manabí through modeling with PVLib Python and comparative economic analysis.
Method: NASA POWER solar radiation data from 2015-2024 were used to model photovoltaic generation with PVLib Python. Three capacities were evaluated considering 270 Wp polycrystalline modules, inverter with 96 % efficiency, and total losses of 14 %. Economic analysis considered 30 % instantaneous self-consumption and grid injection valued at 0,091 USD/kWh, comparing annual savings and electricity bill reduction between cantons and capacities.
Results: regional average solar radiation was 4,11 kWh/m²/day, with 7,1 % variation between northern and southern cantons. The 3 kWp systems generated on average 4.562 kWh/year, producing economic savings of 754 USD/year and 409 % bill reduction. Pedernales and Jama showed the highest potential with 783 and 776 USD/year respectively. The 1 kWp systems were insufficient (263 USD/year) while 5 kWp systems generated poorly optimized surplus (1.206 USD/year).
Conclusions: the 3 kWp photovoltaic systems are economically feasible for homes with 150 kWh/month consumption in all coastal cantons of Manabí, with an estimated payback period of 5,3 years. Feasibility critically depends on the net metering scheme.